As the Tony Awards rapidly approach, some nominees have stuck out as likely winners in the eyes of the public.

The Tony Awards recognize the best Broadway productions over a particular theater season. This years’ Tonys were held on June 12, 2022 at Radio City Music Hall, with Tony Award-nominee and Academy Award-winner Ariana DeBose as the event’s host. 

Among the five productions nominated for “Best New Play,” “The Lehman Trilogy” appears to be favored to win. Directed by Tony winner Sam Mendes, the critically lauded play follows three generations of the Lehman family, founders of the company responsible for the 2008 financial crisis. 

The play, which ran for 82 performances at the Nederlander Theatre, was hailed as a “never-ending stream of…dazzlers” by Broadway critic Greg Evans for Deadline and theorized to be the show that will win the Tony by New York Times theater critic Jesse Green.

The race for “Best New Musical” will be much closer, with the jury still out on which show will take home the coveted trophy. 

“A Strange Loop,” the Pulitzer Prize-winning and most Tony-nominated production of this theater season, tells the story of a black, queer writer creating a musical about a black, queer writer. 

The Olivier-nominated “Six” shares the tales of the six wives of Henry VIII through the lens of a pop concert. While “A Strange Loop” may be more critically acclaimed, theater fans like Robert Hofler of The Wrap are concerned that Tony voters may gravitate toward the more fun, commercial nature of “Six.”

“Out of the 650 Tony voters, the biggest block are out-of-town presenters who need the imprimatur ‘Tony-winning best musical’ to market their subscription series,” said Hofler. “They will pick the half-dozen Spice Girls of ‘Six,’ dramatizing the wives of Henry VIII, over a show about ‘a fat, Black, queer body.”

It will be a similarly tight decision for “Best Leading Actress in a Musical” and “Best Leading Actor in a Musical.” For “Actress,” both Sharon D. Clarke of “Caroline, or Change” and Joaquina Kalukango of “Paradise Square” are frontrunners in the category, but Clarke’s show being closed may put her at a disadvantage. 

As for “Actor,” Jaquel Spivey as Usher in “A Strange Loop” and Myles Frost as the eponymous role in “MJ: The Musical” both received rave reviews for their performances. Unfortunately for Frost, the controversial nature of Michael Jackson due to allegations of child sexual abuse made against him may deter Tony voters from giving him the win.The a

Regardless of the outcome of the event, the Tony Awards will serve as both a celebration of Broadway’s return and an ode to an abnormal, COVID-plauged season in theater history.